Industrialized countries became wealthy through coal, oil and gas. Today, poorer states face the question of whether they should be allowed to follow the same path – or whether they should base their economic development directly on renewable energy. Whether a fossil-free development pathway is realistic, affordable and economically viable remains contested.

The world as a blue cube as a result of unbridled coal mining.

Countries such as Mozambique stand at this crossroads. Offshore, multi-billion-dollar gas projects promise substantial state revenues, while at the same time the country has vast, largely untapped potential in hydropower, solar and wind energy. Because no irreversible investments have yet been made, different development paths remain open, explains sustainability expert Philipp Trotter.

As international pressure grows to avoid new fossil fuel projects, many governments in Africa and Asia argue that it is unfair to deny them the same growth model once used by wealthy nations. Climate scientists counter that the remaining CO₂ budget is insufficient for this. Moreover, it is unclear whether new gas or coal projects will remain profitable in the long term, as global demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak soon.

Renewable energy has meanwhile become cheaper than new fossil power plants in many cases. However, high upfront investments in grids, storage and backup capacity remain a major obstacle for many developing countries. Kenya is often cited as a success story: nearly 90 percent of its electricity comes from renewable sources, primarily geothermal energy. This was made possible by long-term public investment and the assumption of early-stage risks by the state before private investors entered.

This model cannot be applied everywhere. Countries such as Mozambique or Senegal are highly indebted and face poorer credit conditions. Researchers therefore stress that there is no single formula for the energy transition. Key factors include economic structure, the role of fossil fuels and rapidly growing energy demand.

India illustrates these tensions clearly. Despite major expansion of solar and wind power, more than 70 percent of electricity generation still comes from coal, while overall energy consumption continues to rise rapidly. Achieving a fast and socially just transition is particularly challenging.

Financing remains the central lever. Experts argue that wealthy countries must shoulder higher upfront costs, provide risk guarantees and significantly expand climate finance. The UN target of at least 300 billion US dollars per year is widely seen as insufficient.

Whether countries like Mozambique choose fossil gas or renewable energy will therefore also depend on whether rich nations are willing to financially support a cleaner development path. (DW)

By Okay Altinisik | 6-1-2026, 2:07:57