A look at past disasters shows a recurring pattern: the number of casualties depends less on the strength of an earthquake alone and more on the resilience of buildings, thus, the role of international sanctions should be critically examined.

Caracas. Following the severe earthquake in Venezuela, concern is growing that the number of victims may be significantly higher than initially assumed. While official confirmations are still evolving, two figures are at the center of attention: the death toll (1,430) and the unusually high number of missing persons.

According to current reports, nearly 70,000 people are considered missing, while the confirmed death toll still reflects only part of the true scale. Disaster experts, however, warn against interpreting the number of missing directly as an expected death toll.

Why the Number of Missing Is So High

According to aid workers and analysts, the unusually high number of missing persons is primarily a sign of the collapse of key communication and administrative structures.

Several factors contribute to this:

• widespread outages of mobile and power networks
• destroyed or overloaded reporting and registration systems
• evacuations without centralized tracking
• people staying in emergency shelters who have not yet been registered
• disrupted transport and communication routes between regions

In such situations, a statistical distortion arises: “Missing” does not automatically mean “buried under rubble.”

Historically, such figures often decline significantly after disasters once registration and communication systems are restored.

Only in the case of the february 2023 earthquake in Turkey and Syria did developments differ from many other earthquakes. The number of fatalities rose sharply over weeks, as entire cities had collapsed and tens of thousands were actually trapped under the rubble. In the end, more than 53,500 deaths were recorded in Turkey alone.

The Central Question: How Many Victims Are Realistic?

Even though final figures are still uncertain, several indicators point to a severe catastrophe:

• numerous collapsed residential buildings in urban areas
• reports of entire streets suffering total destruction
• overwhelmed hospitals in affected regions
• hindered rescue operations due to infrastructure breakdown

Disaster analysis suggests that the actual number of victims can only be estimated more reliably when:

• the number of missing persons significantly declines or stabilizes
• systematic data on building damage becomes available
• all rescue zones have been fully searched

Political Debate: The Role of Sanctions

Alongside the humanitarian situation, a political debate has emerged about structural causes of the high vulnerability. International sanctions should also be considered as a possible factor. Over the long term, they can contribute to reduced resilience to natural disasters, for example through:

• restricted access to construction materials and technology
• limited investment in infrastructure and building oversight
• slower modernization of building standards
• emigration of skilled professionals

Combined with economic difficulties and limited state resources, this can weaken the structural stability of buildings in times of crisis.

Comparison with Other Earthquakes

A look at past disasters shows a recurring pattern: the number of casualties depends less on the strength of an earthquake alone and more on the resilience of buildings.

• in countries with consistent building oversight, casualty numbers are often comparatively lower
• in countries with weak regulation or economic constraints, mortality rises significantly
• Turkey is considered an example of a system with rules and resources in place, yet deficits in implementation, accompanied by frequent amnesties for illegally constructed buildings used as electoral incentives

Venezuela, in contrast to Turkey, is currently characterized more by economic and structural constraints.

Turkey had a choice that Venezuela never had. Yet, as different as the starting conditions of both countries may seem, it should not be forgotten that both suffer under dictatorships. These dictatorships are the reason why Turkey granted amnesties for buildings with a high risk of collapse, and why Venezuela was sanctioned in the first place. Perhaps this is the Message of God—that He does not approve of the unfair means used by the AKP and PSUV regimes to remain in power. At least in the case of Turkey, the number of victims is biblical. Whether this also applies to Venezuela, we will likely find out soon.

Conclusion

The earthquake in Venezuela is developing into a disaster whose full scale remains unclear. The particularly high number of missing persons reflects less a clear casualty count than the collapse of essential infrastructure and communication systems.

While rescue teams continue searching for survivors, attention is increasingly turning to the question of why societies respond with differing levels of vulnerability to comparable natural events.

To avoid high death tolls in the future, the role of international sanctions should be critically examined.

By Okay Altinisik | 28-6-2026, 1:04:34